The Future of Gaming

[Gigadi]

Intresting Opinion, I don;t exactly agree with it but intresting none the less.
This is my opinion, based on my experience on what I have heard.

First, all of us know that DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION IS THE FUTURE. This will not happen within the next 5 years for several reasons. First and most important is internet connection speeds. Cable is not fast enough. Downloading a 6 GB game will take hours. Someone will eventually solve this problem. Second is server size. Solution: build a GIANT server farm. I think this will all be done by Microsoft with the next generation system after Xbox 360. HD-DVD and Blu-ray is just holding off digital distribution.

Second, games will be similar to today graphics cannot and will not improve much. As we can see the "leap" (in graphics) from Super Nintendo to Nintendo 64 was BIG. From the Nintendo 64 to Gamecube is smaller. From Gamecube to Wii is even smaller. The "leaps" are beginning to become smaller. After we receive Shrek-like graphics, whether it is in the next generation or the following one, graphics, for the most part, will not be improved upon much.

Third, we will see less features on consoles. As I was talking before with the "leaps" in the previous paragraph, we will see smaller leaps in features as well. The last breakthrough in features was online play (on consoles I mean). Before that it was 4 player capability. Think about it, What new features could possibility be added on the next generation consoles? I am pretty sure there will be integration features from pc to console gaming, such as Live Anywhere and cross platform gaming on a bigger scale but that is about it.

Fourth, I think Nintendo will drop out of the hardware category and become a software company, just like Sega. Lets face it, the games are good but the Wii's hardware (I am talking power) cannot possibly compete with the Xbox 360 and PS3.
Is this a good thing, It could be.

Fifth, PC gaming is not going anywhere, as well as console gaming.

I am not saying that gaming is going down a downward spiral but it is not going to be going up faster than it previously had.

[GWS923]

I refer you to this article because of your doubt in Nintendo's ability to compete in the hardware business:

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/05/26/japan-famitsu-opinion-poll-favors-nintendos-wii/

Evidently, nearly 70% of japanese gamers think you're wrong.

Might I also mention that the DS and DS Lite together outsold the PSP nearly 4 to 1 for the first half of this year: http://ds.ign.com/articles/716/716595p1.html

Nintendo will always make hardware, or nothing at all. And they're not going anywhere any time soon.

[Gigadi]

Oh wow, sorry. I forgot to put this in quotes. I just thought it was an intresting viewpoint. Those are not exactly my viewpoints.

EDIT: Fixed

[Pedro The Hutt]

Well you could've posted what your thoughts on that article are.

Either way, that thing reeks of fanboyage.

Digital distribution is the future of (console) gaming? Don't make me laugh. Not everyone even has broadband yet, let alone that everyone has an internet connection yet. Making a console that's download only (Oh look, it's the Phantom again! Whoops, it's out of existance again), is just cutting out a major part of the populace and thus a good deal of possible sales. Not to mention setting up a massive server farm? Oh come on, that would mean in case of a fire in that building the entire console would be flat on it's arse for weeks.

As to leaps, I wonder what they're thinking that there won't be any more when the next leap in gaming (the Wii and it's controller interface) is staring them dead in the face and they fail to notice it.

And Nintendo dropping out of the console race? My my, dealing with a Microsoft fanboy are we? Nintendo so far has been managing quite well with their consoles. Sure they're not market leaders but they still make a profit at the end of the week.

[Erigion]

1) Look at the PC and Steam. Preloading works...kinda...sorta. Wii and its virtual console.

2) And where will that leave my holographic h-games!??! I want life-like h-games!

And you know, we'll probably get them. Not anytime soon but we will.

Oh and using Nintendo's hardware is kinda retarded. Their recent systems have always been the weakest, in terms of hardware. Comparing the leaps between the PS, PS2, and PS3 or the leap between the XBox and XBox360 would make more sense if you want to talk about hardware leaps.

But hey, if the data doesn't fit, find new data right?

3) Oh, I don't know. When Sony turns the PS5 into a cable box/audio receiver/SFF computer it'll have tons of new features.

Oh wait you mean gaming features? Wii kinda has a big new feature, the Wiimote. I'm sure those people getting paid the big bucks will come up with something new. Or perhaps some small start up will. I know someone will because if we're playing essentially the same games on essentially the same consoles 10, 20, or 50 years from now that'd be kinda sad for the video game industry.

4) See GWS923's post. Also, if you're buying a console just for its hardware you need to rethink your priorities.

5) Sure it isn't.

6) Why bother posting this since the man can't even respond to our arguments?

[Griveton]

To generate discussion, Erig :p

The article is quite shortsighted. Everything that could've been invented had been invented in 1899, or so the story goes. Pretty simply, real advancements in hardware are oftentimes unthinkable when you're watching from 10 years earlier. The author's view is biased by hindsight. In hindsight, everything that has happened, had to happen, and in retrospective, it's obvious. However, the path wasn't so clear back then.

Another aspect is that most true revolutions or new features are on the part of software. Hardware has, with few exceptions (3-D rendering) stayed on a pretty linear, pretty predictable path. Hardware has just gotten cheaper and more accessible. He's also focusing only on classical graphics, which in the past were a good barometer of improvement (since say, the gameplay of Mario Bros to Super Mario bros didn't change too much in a technical sense). New generations have made leaps and bounds in other directions, and we'll even see some complete paradigm shifts in graphics (Erig, I'm talking about your holographic h-games :D ) and in gameplay (The Wiimote is an example of this).

As for digital distribution, I do believe it's the future. Part of it. It's not gonna supplant completely the brick-and-mortar stores, but it will take a big chunk out of it. It most probably can become a majority of the sales, but not right now. Give it ten years, maybe more, maybe a little less. The big hurdle in the long term for digital distribution is not broadband penetration, but that as connection speeds and storage capacities increase, so does the filesize of programs. MS-DOS could be run from a floppy. Games used to occupy 50k... at most. Now Windows is taking a couple gigs from my HD. the latest games use 3-5 gigs of space. Both technologies are spiraling upwards like crazy, and the Blu-ray/HDDVD debacle will not help in this situation.

[Senshi]

1. That sounds like a lot of money... plus I like collector's edition T-shirts lol

2. The word is SCALE! SCALE is where the future lies... sure we are gonna get closer and closer to "Shrek" but what Im personally more excited about it like having 10 Billion Shreks on screen at once... A WHOLE ARMY OF SHREKS!

and then give me a shotgun so I can send them all back to hell...

But can you imagine a WWII game where you arent in some small village with "railroad scripting", but rather a whole province with soldiers all fighting each other? No load times and Hitler's entire army breathing down your neck?

3. I dont think we can make accurate predictions like that... in fact I would think that the PS3/XBox360/Wii has a helluva lot more features added than any previous system.

4. Nah

5. What I imagine is that PCs will become cheaper and more uniform, and Consoles will become more expensive and more "customizable" to the point where you cant tell a console from a PC anymore...

Soon people are gonna be using Microsoft Word on their Xbox 720...

idk maybe

[jetfire]

1. While it may be possible to download games in the far future, I don't think that companies will 100% rely on paying online to download games. This would be more of an option. Lots of consumers feel that it is unreliable to shop online, and many comsumers also like to have hard copies of their games. How much would it suck if you purchased and downloaded 20 games for your PS5, only to have your PS5 break down and lose all the games that you've downloaded?

2. Shrek like graphics will be possible, but it won't be a developer's limit. I believe that games will be able to achieve near photo realism with time and effort. Just because we havent hit that bar for even movies right now, doesnt mean it can't ever be hit. And once photo realistic graphics are obtained, what's next? Virtual Reality. After VR, I don't think we have anything to worry about. By the time VR seems old, we'll probably be elderly or dead.

3. Anything's possible. This guy isn't thinking big enough. As I've said, VR would be a huge groundbreaking element if done right. And the Wii is showing that new features can take gameplay in different directions. I mean, we may even get a microwave installed in our system, so we can heat our pizza in case we get hungry while we play. Anything is possible.

4. There's a small possibility of that happening. The writer of the article obviously isn't giving the Wii a chance yet, as Nintendo is taking an entirely new direction, it could put them back in 1st or 2nd place in the console race. If they still fail for home consoles, I don't think they'll ever be defeated for handhelds.

5. Where do they expect them to go? And both formats can get better, but the writer isnt thinking big enough. I'm glad he/she isn't in charge of a software development company. That's just pessimistic.

[Roark]

As far as digital distribution goes, server farms aren't necessary in the slightest. At least, not after the first day or so. A built-in, secure torrent client solves the need to host a large server farm. The send/receive processes of online games don't take much bandwith, thruth told. The rest can be used to share game data. HDD space is a negligible cost these days. A few years may bring it down to a penny/gig.

As for the rest, this person really has no idea what he's talking about. "Someone will eventually solve [connection speed problems]." This is almost laughable, partially because it's a perceived problem (6 gigs really isn't that much, probably about 2-3 hours from a good connection), partially because compression brings that size down seriously, partially because the majority of games don't take that much space, and partially because I2 kicks ass.

The new features on consoles bit is hilarious. Nintendo's on the right track here with adjusting the human interface devices. Revolutions in gameplay have historically been preceded by revolutions in interface (think NES controller, analogue sticks, dance mats). I won't consider gaming features "complete" until I have direct neural links.

Graphics will stagnate until new display technologies become available. Shrek-like graphics aren't the key, though. The key is stylization (see: Gitaroo Man). Photorealism doesn't lend itself to every game. Grim Fandango doesn't work without a cartoon skeleton.

Of course, for some games, the ultimate goal is Gollum, not Shrek. This is doable currently, just expensive in real-time.

Finally, power doesn't really matter much after a certain point. As long as something is powerful enough to run Tetris, a market will exist for it. Most peoples' penii aren't small enough to care.

[Yodatsubato]

This article sounds just like some guy making a bunch of outspoken comments, hoping that in the off chance one of his "predictions" comes true, he can say "I told you so" and be reveared as an oracle.

I hate people like that (if those are indeed his intentions). If those aren't his intentions, well, then I respectfully disagree. =)

Disclaimer: I use "guy" in the generic sense. I have no idea if it's a guy or a girl, but everyone knows that girls never play games anyway. :p

[GWS923]

Oh wow, sorry. I forgot to put this in quotes. I just thought it was an intresting viewpoint. Those are not exactly my viewpoints.

EDIT: Fixed

It's all good. Sorry for yelling at you then :)

[Ritalin]

This will not happen within the next 5 years for several reasons. First and most important is internet connection speeds.

Internet connection speeds are extremely fast, unless you either 1) Live in the US or 2) Live far from any large city.

And the writer of the article/post is an idiot for thinking we've reached a slow point in hardware development for consoles.

[Roark]

Internet connection speeds are extremely fast, unless you either 1) Live in the US or 2) Live far from any large city.

And the writer of the article/post is an idiot for thinking we've reached a slow point in hardware development for consoles.
Two words: Moore's Law.

[f1rst children]

Internet connection speeds are extremely fast, unless you either 1) Live in the US or 2) Live far from any large city.

3) Game publishers don't pay the access fees demanded by American ISPs, allowing them, with the lapse of Net Neutrality, to de-prioritize game files.

[Ritalin]

3) Game publishers don't pay the access fees demanded by American ISPs, allowing them, with the lapse of Net Neutrality, to de-prioritize game files.

That would fall under 1. :D